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FARE: Factor-Aware Retrieval with Error-Guided Fusion for Retail Forecasting
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First announced by arXiv: 2026-10-30 · Indexed by Pub-AI: 2026-10-30 UTC
FARE: Factor-Aware Retrieval with Error-Guided Fusion for Retail Forecasting
First announced by arXiv: 2026-10-30 · Original record ↗
- arxiv
- 2610.40160
Explicit source versions (1)
- v1 · Date not supplied
- Preprint available
Source date: 2026-10-30 · First detected: 2026-10-30 UTC · Historical baseline
Source evidence (1)
- Official evidence ↗ · RSS guid=oai:arXiv.org:2610.40160v1; arxiv:announce_type=new; item pubDate (official metadata)
Abstract · arxiv
Retail sales forecasting underpins inventory planning, yet promotions and calendar events reshape short-term demand. Although each factor usually has historical occurrences, the complete factor combination of a target week often has few precedents. The challenge is therefore to retrieve informative partial matches and weight them by their reliability, which varies across series. We propose FARE(Factor-Aware Retrieval with Error-Guided Fusion), which ranks historical weeks separately for each known target-week factor and merges the selected weeks into a factor reference under a fixed budget. Guided by shrunk errors from completed development weeks and the current disagreement among candidates, a first gate mixes this factor reference with a shape reference from similar sales histories, and a second gate controls how strongly the mixture corrects a backbone forecast. Both gates remain fixed during testing. On Favorita, M5, Rossmann, and Rohlik, FARE reduces the weighted absolute percentage error (WAPE) of five backbones by 11.46%, 4.06%, 14.63%, and 10.16% on average. With Chronos-2 frozen, FARE also outperforms conventional and existing enhancement methods, including supervised residual correction and retrieval augmentation. Code is available at https://github.com/HousonGu/FARE .