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The Utility of Physics-Informed Machine Learning in Solar Power Production Forecasting
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First announced by arXiv: 2026-10-30 · Indexed by Pub-AI: 2026-10-30 UTC
The Utility of Physics-Informed Machine Learning in Solar Power Production Forecasting
First announced by arXiv: 2026-10-30 · Original record ↗
- arxiv
- 2610.38976
Explicit source versions (1)
- v1 · Date not supplied
- Preprint available
Source date: 2026-10-30 · First detected: 2026-10-30 UTC · Historical baseline
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- Official evidence ↗ · RSS guid=oai:arXiv.org:2610.38976v1; arxiv:announce_type=new; item pubDate (official metadata)
Abstract · arxiv
Physics-informed machine learning (PIML) and hybrid modeling have attracted significant attention as approaches for combining physical knowledge with the flexibility of deep learning. In this work, we investigate whether these approaches deliver their commonly claimed benefits for large-scale photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting. We develop two hybrid forecasting architectures that integrate the ADR physical PV efficiency model with the TSMixer neural forecasting architecture through feature augmentation and residual learning. The proposed models are evaluated on a dataset comprising over 3 million samples from 3,713 PV installations across 33 European countries. We assess convergence speed, forecasting accuracy, transferability across geographical regions, and data efficiency. Although the physics-informed models seem to exhibit slightly faster convergence during training, they do not achieve consistent improvements in test-set accuracy, generalization, or performance under limited training data compared to the purely data-driven baseline. These findings suggest that, for modern deep forecasting architectures trained on large datasets, explicitly incorporating the ADR physical model provides limited practical benefit for day-ahead PV forecasting.